Commerce Riff with Sri & PVSB - July 7, 2026

PVSB 0:01

It's July 7th, 2026, and this is the Commerce Riff, brought to you by the CPT guys. 10 minutes of the news stories that matter in commerce this week. We're back after a short hiatus. We took a while away working at Can Lions down in the Riviera. I'm your co-host, PVSB, and I'm joined as always by Papa Entourage, as I've come to call him, the father of pop stars, co-founder of Think Blue Consulting. Shree, what's going on? What's on your mind today?

SPEAKER_00 0:27

How's it going, Peter? Glad to be back from what I would call an wildly successful Can Lions Festival for the CPG guys and the FMCG guys. What I'm thinking about today is obviously the 250th birthday of America. Congratulations. What a wonderful time to be part of history. And then my mind is future forwarding to two and a half weeks away. You and I are gonna do something very fun, very interesting. We're gonna go to the Baseball Hall of Fame induction ceremony, Major League Baseball in Cooperstown, followed by the immersive five-day program at Cornell University. First of its kind, omnicommerce media combines AI. Students will actually get to write agents, live agents in course. Woo! Back to you, man.

PVSB 1:10

Shree, dare I say I'm equally as excited about going to Cooperstown and seeing you experience it for the first time as I am about getting up to Ithaca and executing the omnicommerce program. We've got about 75 people in the room for that, and the excitement is already building. All right, let's kick things off with the Q4 General Mills earnings release. General Mills just closed the books on fiscal 2026, and depending on which line of the PL you're staring at, this release reads like either a rough year or a genuine inflection point. Maybe it's both. Headline-wise, you've got full year net sales of $18.4 billion, which is down 5%. Ouch, that's the story on the cover, but flipped to the fourth quarter and the tone changes a bit. Net sales of $4.6 billion, up 1%, and organic net sales basically flat year over year. And that's short-term stabilization. Now here's where I want you to slow down because the loss per share headline will scare people, right? Diluted loss per share of 374 versus a profit of 53 cents a year ago sounds like a disaster, but that swing is almost entirely non-cash. Goodwill and brand and tangible impairments, plus a valuation loss tied to the planned Brazil divestiture. Strip that out, adjusted diluted EPS was 95 cents, 27% in constant currency, beating what Wall Street was modeling, which was sitting around 80 to 82 cents going in. And that beat matters because adjusted operating profit came in at 70 oh five million, up 13% in constant currency. That tells you the underlying engine price, mix, cost discipline is running better than the top line might suggest. Let's talk North America retail, because that's the segment every CPG exec on this podcast LinkedIn feed is going to be watching, right? Cheerios, Pillsbury, Betty Crocker, that is the heart of the house. Q4Net sales there were 2.5 billion, down 4% year over year. Again, not good. On its own, that doesn't sound like progress, but context is everything. The same segment was down 10% in the year ago, period. So the rate of decline is decelerating meaningfully. That's the signal management wants investors to key in on heading into fiscal 27. Which brings me to the next two headlines I think actually matter more than the quarter itself. One, General Mills has entered a definitive agreement to sell his Brazil business, which I referenced. The Yoki and Catano brands expected to close by the end of calendar 26. Portfolio simplification, plain and simple. Two, the fiscal 27 outlook calls for improved organic growth and a target of $3 billion in cost savings by fiscal 2030. Let's hope for their sake that they can actually make that after having reported consistently quarters that we're missing numbers. $3 billion by 2030 is a big number for a company this size. And it tells me leadership is playing offense on the cost structure so they can reinvest in the brands that need it. Innovation, marketing, maybe even some MA optionality down the line. We'll see. The market likes it too. Shares popped close to 4% in the pre-market, still a long way from the $54, 52-week high. So nobody's declaring victory. But for a stock that's been under pressure, just listen to any of the analysis our dear friend Nick Modi at RBC Capital has delivered. A beat and a plan quarter is exactly what the algorithm ordered in for a retail media and commerce audience specifically. Watch what a leaner, more efficient General Mills does with its trade media spend as the savings materialize. A CPG that's freeing up $3 billion of cost has more room to lean in on retail media partnerships, retail media measurement, and first-party data investments. That's the storyline you and I will be tracking through fiscal 2027.

SPEAKER_00 4:55

Over to you, Shrey. So from Grocery Drive, it's Kroger and the new acquisition. Over the past decade or so, we are aware that Kroger has strayed from the MA strategy that has powered just what I would call large grocery empire. Instead of acquiring regional chains to grow its footprint and add valuable assets, the company focused on Boltown Deal's home chef, Marays Cheese, a flawed e-commerce partnership, is what we would call it, and its overly ambitious attempt to merge with Albertson's, which did not work out at the end of the day because of antitrust. Kroger now plans to acquire Giant Eagle. It seems to be like a return to original form, the $1.65 billion deal, which the company expects to close sometime next year. Nets Kroger 200 stores, a handful of pharmacies that cost that like a well-crafted in-store promotion, get the pun, Peter, was just too good to pass up. The purchase price amounts to about four days worth of sales across Kroger's businesses, which I would personally call as nothing. Relative pittance considering Giant Eagle's $9 billion in estimated revenues on an annualized basis. Analysts with RPI Capital Markets wrote in a research note Wednesday. But what is Kroger actually getting for its money? The benefits seemed pretty mixed in the past. Kroger made acquisitions that introduced it to new regions, added valuable assets, picked up Fred Meyer all the way back in 1998 to expand into the Western US. When it acquired Haristida in 2014, Kroger gained what I would say an ahead of its time e-commerce platform that helped it hone and build its online grocery business to what it is today. The geographic benefits of adding giant eagle are pretty clear, but don't seem as compelling as in the past deals. Kroger's already had stores in four other five states where Giant Eagle operates, which is different from its traditional acquisition strategy of the past. The major market editions are Pennsylvania, where Kroger doesn't operate any stores, period, specifically Western Penn, where Giant Eagle has built a robust presence stemming from its Pittsburgh headquarters in Northeast Ohio market where Kroger hasn't operated for decades. We're also not sure that Giant Eagle is something Kroger doesn't, but both Kroas share a lot of DNA from their deep investments in pharmacy, private label, retail media to the fact that both operate alternative supermarket models, Giant Eagle's Market District and Kroger's Marketplace Stores. These assets will probably integrate nicely with Kroger, but there doesn't seem to be a true gem in the deal like what we thought Hyridage Theater's online business, Mariano's food service expertise bought. Giant Eagle has faced strong competitive pressure from MassMech and other low price retailers in the recent years. It actually ceded to the top market share spot in its hometown to Walmart a few years back before quickly regaining it. Getting the full value of this deal means Kroger will have to sharpen Giant Eagle's performance as it tries to improve its own. That all adds up to an awfully full plate for Kroger and its recently minted CEO, said Neil Saunders, managing director with Global Data. I believe you have an announcement to share.

PVSB 7:35

I do. I will say about the Giant Eagle intended acquisition. It's been 11 years since they've had a successful acquisition. It was Mariano's back in 2015 and Harris Teeter the year before. So we'll see. It does move them closer to the Northeast. But despite their size Shree, without any representation east of Harrisburg and north of DC, Kroger still isn't really a national retailer. So uh when they start creeping their way into the metro New York area or into New England, uh that's a that's a whole different story. But meanwhile, they're gonna have to deal with the vestitors of stores in the uh Columbus area where they do have some overlap. All right, on June 23rd, ASDA announced it's deploying Amazon Retail Ad Service or RADS for short, across Asda and its George Fashion and Home Business. Asda is the first retailer anywhere outside the USA to run this service. Rachel Eyer, who you and I met at Cannes Lyons, ASDA's chief customer and digital officer, and Joseph Park, VP of Creative Experiences and AI Solutions and Amazon Ads, both put their names on this as a UK first. Rolut is phase starting Q4 this year, so mark your calendars. This is announced, not live. Don't reallocate retail media budget just yet. Confirm the go live phase first. For those who haven't tracked this, RADS is Amazon's advertising technology licensed out of a product. Think of it as Amazon ads as a service for a competitor's storefront. As doesn't buying media on Amazon, as does licensing the machine, the targeting and the measurement, the auction logic, and running its natively on its own site and on George. That's the headline within the headline. Amazon just turned a business that generated tens of billions of dollars into something its own grocery rivals can rent. As to just came out of Walmart's shadow after Project Future, its mid-turnaround, it just signed a KO for its supply chain and fulfillment backbone, and now it's handing its advertising intelligence layer to Amazon, its single largest online competitor in the UK. Rachel Ayers' logic is sound. Advertisers already know Amazon ads, they trust it. Fragmented UK retail media landscape rewards familiarity and frictionless onboarding. Day one scale beats a bespoke build every time when you're racing to catch share. For brands, this is a net positive near term. One framework, cross-platform reporting, and the ability to extend a campaign from Asda and George straight into Amazon ads inventory. That's real incrementality and real reach. And it's exactly the kind of simplification RMN buyers have been begging for. For the broader retail media network landscape, watch this closely. If RADS performs well at ASDA, that becomes a template. Amazon as the ad tech utility layer for grocers who don't want to build their own stack. That reshapes a competitive map for every mid-tier retail media network watching from the sidelines, including right here in the U.S. Sri.

SPEAKER_00 10:27

Over to you. Thank you so much, Peter. And let me close this out with discussing how much volatility we've had in leadership in grocery in the last few months. Grocers are particularly busy making executive changes in June as numerous companies named new CEOs and others made adjustments to their exec teams. Amongst the biggest announcements were Holdeley's disclosure that it nominated former Amazon grocer executive Claire Peters to serve as CEO of its U.S. businesses. Changes last month also included the appointment of the first female president of Long Island grocery chain, King Cullen, and the naming of a new vice president of sales and merchandising for Fresh by Stater Brothers Markets. Let's look at some of the others and significant executive changes in this sector that I'm discussing. Stateside unit of the Dutch supermarket chain named Claire Peters, who was most recently served as Amazon's vice president for Worldwide Fresh, and she will be the next CEO. I think it's important to point out she previously worked for Australian Grocer Woolworths Group and held several roles at Tesco in the UK and Thailand. She is set to replace JJ Fleman, who stepped down last month and will become CEO of Dollar General in 2027. A Long Island supermarket chain, King Cullen, as I mentioned, announced that Tracy Cullen, great-granddaughter of its founder, has become the chain's president and chief operating officer. Cullen was replacing the retiring Joseph W. Brown in both roles, as the first female to serve as president of King Cullen. Woodman's Food Markets announced that is appointed. Clint Woodman as CEO and Kristen Pop as president. Both executives have been with the chain for about 30 years. Southern California grocer named Bruce Robinson, who spent 40 years working for Texas Groach ACB as Vice President of Sales and Merchandising for Fresh. Robinson's appointment is among several top executive changes as Stator Brothers since the grocer named a new CEO last September. Grocery Outlet made two top executive level changes. Discounter appointed Paul Miller as chief purchasing and merchandising officer, promoted Ian Ferry to CFO. Christopher Miller, who served as the Discounter CFO since the start of 2025, and Matthew Delhi, who worked as chief merchandising and purchandising purchasing officer since early 2076, both departed the company last month. Chelson's Market staff, Koichi Toyo, who has worked for the parent company Pan Pacific International Holdings for more than two decades as his president CEO. Toyo replaces Ryan Adams, who led the company since April 2024. Why are the name's chief of stores, the Hispanic grocery store operator, appointed longtime employee Jose Manuel Cordero as the chief of stores. Coday has worked for the retailer for his entire 35-year career. A family-holding company of grocery chains, including Schnook Markets, Festival Foods, named Todd Schnook Jr. as the CFO. Schnook, formerly VP of own brands and merchandising chief of staff for Schnooks, took over for David Bell following the announcement of Bell's transition to president of the 1939 group in 2025. This has been the most volatility in a long time, Peter. Lots going on in the grocery sector. Lot of people moving around, Sri.

PVSB 13:09

That's a wrap on this week's Commerce Rift. Before we go, make sure you've caught our most recent episodes of the CPG guys. That includes Kerry Masters, our own fun behind the scenes recap of Can Lions, and of course, Nielsen IQ, North America President, our dear friend Liz Buchanan, holder of a five timer CPG Guys jacket, live from the stage, closing out C360 with, of course, the CPG guys. If any of this sparked a thought, drop it in the comments. We read them. And if you're not already following us on LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and YouTube, now is the time. See ya.