NielsenIQ's Nicole Collida Davis - The State of Consumer Shopping Behaviors

SPEAKER_01 0:56

Hi, I'm Nicole Kalita Davis, Managing Director of U.S. Retail and Agencies for NIQ, and you are watching the CPG Guys Podcast.

PVSB 1:04

Hello and welcome to the CPG Guys Podcast, set at the intersection of commerce and tech. Your hosts, Peter V. S. Bond and Tree Rajagopalan, explore how brands and retailers engage consumers in an increasingly digitally driven world. And now, here are the CPG Guys.

Sri 1:25

Hello and welcome to this episode of the CPG Guys Podcast. And we are Lyot from Grocery Shop 2026. I'm of course Sri, your West Coast co-host, and also CRO and co-founder at ThinkBlue Consulting, your trusted partner in your Omnichannel journey, where you can get in touch with me at Sri@thinkblueconsulting.co. Please do listen to my younger daughter, Lara Raj of the band Katseye, two VMA nominations, SNL performance, balance of the two in US later this year. And of course, my older daughter Rhea Raj, who's now recently signed by Republic Records with High B USA and Send Me a Surprise, plastered all over the MTA subways of New York this week for as a MAC girl. We're of course joined today by my East Coast co-host and co-founder, EVSB, a fellow young professor of business at the S. C. Johnson School of Business at Cornell University. Peter, we're about day three here at Grocery Shop. We've got much more to do. What's going on, Ben? How are you doing?

PVSB 2:19

Well, let me establish I am not a MAC Cosmetics girl. I am not on any subways, but I'm I'm so glad to be with you. I'm neither. Listen, I am excited. We're we're rounding out our second full day here at Grocery Shop. This is We have produced an enormous amount of content while we've been here between podcast recordings, events we've been attending, and just social media. We had a big announcement this week. We announced that our dear friend Ken Coogan of Coogan Partners has graciously, as he uh heads towards retirement, asked us to pick up the gauntlet and carry forward with his two share groups around digital and shopper marketing. So the Super G guys are now in the share group business. Yeah, I hope they figure out who we are, Sri. Fortunately, we've already been getting a lot of inbound from members of that group in the community telling us how excited they are. And our goal is just not skip a beat. So we want to keep that going. But I'm glad to be here, Sri. Looking forward to our conversation that's about to ensue.

Sri 3:32

Indeed. Let me thank all who listen to us, our sponsors, of course, because without all of you, this podcast doesn't exist in the first place. Make sure subscribing to our podcast on your preferred listening platform where you can get our latest episodes, go back to consume some of the 620 plus episodes we've already published. And to our audience for getting value from these conversations, all we have is three quick and easy asks. The first one, subscribe. Whatever platform you're listening on right now, all you have to do, whether it's Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, or anywhere else, hit that subscriber follow button so you never have to miss a single episode of content we produce. Second, leave us a rating. It takes us a few seconds. Makes an enormous difference in helping other CPG and retail media professionals find us. We build this community, one listener, one episode at a time. And you know, a five-star rating would be nice. One epiter.

PVSB 4:23

I don't know. I'm I think we're like at a 2.4 right now, Sri. Maybe we are nah. Give us a five. Come on, people, hit the five. I'd hit up for a 4.9. We need like five people. Give us a five. We need a five.

SPEAKER_01 4:35

This will be a five episode. There we go.

Sri 4:36

This will be a five. Anytime Nicole's on the show, it's gonna raise the bar. By the way, she's our special guest today is back for a second time on the show. And finally, follow us on LinkedIn between episodes. We're publishing thought leadership, industry analysis, and content. You're not gonna find anywhere else. All built for the CPG and retail community you're already a part of. So CPG guys on LinkedIn and hit follow or click the link in the digital show notes. At the end of the day, what are we asking you to do? Subscribe, rate, follow. Three simple actions so that you can get all the conversations that matter. And now on to our guests recorded live at Grocery Shop 2026. Just a few minutes and hours after Nielson IQ's standing room only mainstage session. This conversation goes inside NIQ's Consumer Outlook 2027 report for an early look at how consumer priority spending channel behavior are shifting. Nicole Colida is this repeat guest on the CPG guys, and she walks through the new top consumer concerns, the widening K-shaped economic divide, the move from deal hunting to deal assembling, and what's being protected versus cut from household budgets. Conversation also covers the club, grocery, dollar channel shakeup, private label embedded for you, Surge, and the four forces NIQ will believe will define the next chapter of shopping. So we're thrilled to have someone who just stepped off the main stage with some of the freshest consumer data in the industry. Nicole is managing director, U.S. retailers Nielsen IQ, where she leads commercial strategy, relationships across some of the largest retailers in the country. She previously served as managing director in SVP US National Accounts, and she's no stranger to this podcast. As I mentioned, she joined us once before along her NIQ colleague Jenny Bell, one of my most favorite episodes. Today she's bringing us a sneak peek of NIQ's Consumer Outlook 2027 report, like I said. And this is what we want to get started about. So, Nicole, welcome back to the CPG guys. How are you doing?

SPEAKER_01 6:33

Thank you. I'm doing great. I'm literally fresh off the stage with some really fresh research. So I'm excited to be crazy.

Sri 6:39

There'll be a lot of numbers running out of your head.

PVSB 6:42

I can still see the heat waving the top of the report. It's like, ooh, and I can smell it. Smells good.

SPEAKER_01 6:47

Xerox?

PVSB 6:48

Yes. Oh, no. And now you're bringing me back to my elementary school days when you had those mimeographs with the purple ink and like that. Oh, those that was good smells. Good smells. Okay.

Sri 6:59

To our audience, please check out the digital show notes of this episode to find a hyperlink to Nicole's LinkedIn profile, to the Nielsen IQ website, of course, to learn more. As we carry on with this conversation with Nicole, let me kick off. First, let me congratulate you on the huge keynote. You're basically walking straight off that stage into this chair. Numbers are gotta be rotating in your head. But before I ask you to dig into those, set the scene for us. What was the main stage keynote about? What happened up there? What's the one-line thesis you want a listeners to walk away with?

SPEAKER_01 7:28

Yeah, the entire purpose of the talk was to talk about how grocery trips are being calculated in a way that's different than it's ever been happening before for consumers. You know, over the past couple of years, we've talked about, you know, the intentional consumer, the cautious consumer. The consumers in the driver's seat. I mean, we put them there as an industry, and we could talk more about that, but they're there now and they're not gonna give that seep up. So every trip is being calculated by consumers. They're thinking about every item that goes in their basket. And the really interesting thing is now, the new research that we've seen is that they're actually thinking about whether or not to make the trip at all.

Sri 8:05

So this is unprecedented, right? Yeah. A first time in the industry. When you hear that every trip is being calculated as somebody who works with data and insights every day, how do you feel?

SPEAKER_01 8:17

You know, on one hand, I think I feel like consumers are doing what we're all doing, which is using data and intelligence to make better decisions, but actually does make me crazy because it's really hard for a brand or a retailer to set a clear strategy. Because this idea of the average shopper that we've all kind of managed to is not relevant in the way that it used to be. It's now about really trying to better understand the consumer's occasion or mission and matching that. So going from one more item in the basket to find growth to capturing a mission.

Sri 8:48

And does that mean the power grab or the power leadership in all of this has now squarely shifted in the consumer's hands?

SPEAKER_01 8:57

I think so. Yeah, I think so. I think we are all we have always been in service of the consumer in our industry. But I think we see brand loyalty declining. We see loyalty to retail banners declining. And so the retailers are or they put themselves in the driver's seat and they're making decisions accordingly.

PVSB 9:18

Nicole, welcome back to the Super She Guys podcast. Always a pleasure to have you with us. Let me start with what's actually keeping consumer attention that you find in this new research. What is nearly topping the list of consumer concerns and why has the picture shifted so much from where we were a year ago?

SPEAKER_01 9:36

Yeah, that's the interesting point is why did it shift? So I don't think it's a huge surprise that food prices are at the top of the list that has grown by a couple points year over year. It's about 34% of consumers that are saying, number one, I'm worried about food prices. Interestingly, utilities, transportation fall in those two and three spots. And I think what we have to watch is that those are growing at an even greater rate than food, up 10 points. 10 points. Yes, yes, from last year's survey.

SPEAKER_03 10:05

You want to get food, you got to drive to the grocery store. You got to drive to the grocery store, you got to buy gas.

SPEAKER_01 10:10

And both are costing you a lot more than than they used to. Yeah. But you asked the question about what's not on the list. That's what's so intriguing. So when we looked at this research last year, when we published the 2025 report, there was a lot popping to the top about geopolitical conflicts, socioeconomic concerns. Just given the state of the US industry at the time, it made sense that those things were popping. They are falling on the list. And while there could be a lot of reasons driving that, we actually think it's a signal that consumers are pulling back into their own homes, their own families. They're worrying much more about how to put food on the table, how to make the right choices for their family. They're investing in things that matter a lot to their family, including their pets. And I think that's really driving this kind of shift in priority.

Sri 10:56

What a moment though. What a change in behavior, preferences, consumer attitudes from just three years ago. So I believe you're also tracking what NIQ is calling the 2026 economic divide. I heard you speak about the K-shaped split between financially secure and financially insecure consumers. With the US diverging faster than what I would call the global average. Walk us through that gap and why average consumer planning is losing relevance today for brands. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 11:27

It just seems like the concern or the struggle isn't landing evenly for consumers. 31% of consumers are telling us that they're struggling in 2026. That's a this is a crazy number to me. It's up 17 points from when we started the survey in 2022. So we're seeing this really migration of consumers into this struggling mindset or behavior. And thrivers, there's still a segment of the population that's thriving. There always are, but it's about 9%. So we're seeing shrunk, or is that about that one has stayed about even shrunk just a little bit, yeah. But we're seeing this cautious middle shrink, right? As people fall out of it. Instead of bifurcating, they're falling out of it into the struggling bucket.

Sri 12:16

Peter, when I think about only 9% in the thriving, Nicole's number that she just gave us the 17%, 17 points or 1700 basis points of increase in those that are struggling. I always think about how do people put food on the table? In and out of, you just talked about gas prices, increased grocery prices at retail. Like what is going on, man?

PVSB 12:41

It's a tough one, Sri. And that kind of begs the question about not surprisingly, you and your data are seeing broad-based growth across nearly every savings tactic to try and address that, right? Couponing, loyalty, bulk buying, private label. My question is, is this just short-term belly tightening, or is there a fundamental shift that's happening in the industry?

SPEAKER_01 13:03

I really think it's it's a durable shift in the way that brands and retailers have to strategically plan for this. I mean, there's this broad swath of value-based behaviors that we're seeing. So maybe a third of consumers are buying more private label. A third of consumers are shifting into club or value channels. You know, another third of consumers are worrying about bringing down the price of their total basket. So there's not like any one thing that people are doing. They're doing all of the things, and they're doing it in this effort to kind of assemble a deal.

Sri 13:37

My worry, Nicole, is the infrastructure of our country from retail and then corresponding is CPG grants that supply retailers isn't built for a 17-point shift in, I would say, those that are struggling, because that means smaller pack sizes, better unit pricing in those pack sizes. I wonder what it means for labeling and marketing in the first place, and then eventually product makeup. The infrastructure of this country is not ready. So what do you do in that scenario?

SPEAKER_01 14:07

Well, it's interesting, it's really interesting that you say that because club is like really having a moment. Despite what we would think about smaller pack sizes, etc., club channel migration is up 10 points year over year. So there's a huge shift of shoppers. So we need to call it. Unit economics. I think that's what it is. So there's a couple things. It's the unit economics. There's still the consumer that wants to stock up. They've built a business on kind of this deal-seeking or you know, treasure hunt behavior. And then on top of all of that, they start with membership, which just signals value before anyone even steps foot in the door.

Sri 14:43

Peter and I go to the club model just for the free samples to eat lunch. Talk to us about the 2020 spending map that you all have been discussing. What's getting cut versus what's holding steady or protected? I mean, the numbers you're giving us are mind-boggling. And why are you framing this shift as justification rather than habit?

SPEAKER_01 15:02

Yeah. Well, we talked about utilities when we talked about some of the rising concerns for consumers. But here's what's crazy consumer spending on utilities alone is up 22 points. It was just like a phenomenal number. Just in the utilities. Yeah. Basic non-negotiables, right? You have to have them in a modern society to live.

Sri 15:24

Are they home more and that's why they're going up, or is it just prices of going up? It's prices.

SPEAKER_01 15:29

Ouch. Yeah, prices. It could be both, right? I but in in my view, it's prices. So groceries are right behind that at 13 point increase year over year.

Sri 15:39

But they're gonna be this is the one-year horizon or one year horizon.

SPEAKER_01 15:43

13% in terms of how consumers are shifting their spend across the dollars that they have in their household. Yeah. So it's these non-negotiables that consumers are having to spend on. I said it earlier, yes, inflation cooled, but prices haven't reset. So every dollar that consumers are spending is coming under fire or into consideration before they make the purchase.

Sri 16:08

Well, let me remind the audience that we're speaking with Nicole Kleida, managing director, U.S. retailer, and Nielsen like you, Peter.

PVSB 16:16

So if you mentioned club stores and the fact that they are accelerated upon the structural value equation, that means that traditional grocery is feeling the pinch both in terms of trips and the dollars associated with those trips per buyer. What should grocery be doing about that?

SPEAKER_01 16:35

It's a really interesting question. I think that grocers, they definitely have a big challenge in front of them. I think for many years, breadth of coverage kind of served grocery well because consumers could pop into their local grocery store, get everything that they needed, find some great promotional value and go about their day. But now with this channel fragmentation, consumers aren't doing that. So I was thinking earlier today, you know, for years in the grocery industry, we've just talked about one more item in the basket. We'll drive value through one more item in the basket. But I mean, we're laughing, but that's not gonna work anymore because what we're seeing is that consumers are actually shifting the whole mission or the whole occasion into other channels.

Sri 17:21

That is a business model change on behalf of the retailer because you just alluded to it, right? It's one more item in the basket. That's how the entire infrastructure of trip driving in-store displays. The entire model is built on one more item in the basket.

PVSB 17:35

I mean, does it mean that that there's nothing the grocery retailers can do to combat the value structure that the clubs have taken over? And so what they need to do is focus on other areas. To your point, they used to go and get everything. Maybe they just have to focus on maybe I I hey, I'm not gonna sell that chicken breast in bulk quantity, but you know what? They don't carry saffron. I'm just gonna focus on filling out the part of the basket that a good meal solution requires that a club store is just never gonna be able to accept.

SPEAKER_01 18:06

Yeah. Yeah, it's a great question. I don't even know if it's that extreme yet, that I fear that it could go there right now. Yeah, yeah. So I think what grocers have to do is is be more overt about the value they provide to the consumer. And they have to use, you know, all the tools in their toolbox to get there, whether it's data and analytics, whether it's, you know, wins in localization, whether it's fresh produce authority, whatever their hook is, they really have to be leaning into that and leveraging that to win.

PVSB 18:35

We were talking with a technology provider today, and they do those robots that go up and down the aisles that scan things. What's the value proposition that you offer to the grocer retailers? And they said, we free up their labor so they can spend their time actually engaging consumers. And I think when I think of the club format, that's that's the one element of an experience that they can't match against the grocer. So maybe it is that we're your local hometown, we have the people there that can help you with what you're trying to solve.

SPEAKER_01 19:05

Yeah.

PVSB 19:05

The club just can't respond to.

SPEAKER_01 19:07

Yeah, I think so. I mean, the really I think kind of crazy thing kind of flips all of this on its head. All channels are increasing trips. Club is growing the fastest by far, but all channels are increasing trips. It's just that if consumers are voting with their dollars, they're voting a lot less in grocery than they are in the other channels.

PVSB 19:27

Fragmentation. Yeah, trips are up, but the baskets are down. Guess what? They're going somewhere else. Yeah. So many more choices in the marketplace.

Sri 19:34

Absolutely. Speaking of somewhere else, it appears based on the data that private brands and better for you seems to be surging, even though this tougher economic backdrop is what we're looking at. How do those two trends connect? And then what does it mean for national huge CPG brands trying to defend their shared positions?

SPEAKER_01 19:56

I think they both connect back to strong retail-focused strategy. So for a private brand in particular, you know, for years it's been kind of like an opening price point play or a value-creating play for retailers. And consumers aren't thinking about it that way. Brand loyalty is really low. Brands have a struggle of having to re-earn loyalty every single purchase, but that gives retailers an opportunity to establish private brand, a true brand, as a backbone for their strategy to pull consumers in because it private brand has the ability to offer value, maybe quality, nutrition, whatever it is, and often at a lower price point for consumers. So I think private brand is just, again, like a durable strategic shift in our industry that's not going to go anywhere.

PVSB 20:46

Yeah, we we had Walmart on, I think last year, and we had someone who was focused on communicating that listen, at the end of the day, I'm trying to make better for you affordable through my platform. So whether they do that through private brands or they work to bring in national brands or challenger brands that allow them to achieve that, they understand that the consumers want better for you. It's just for many years, a lot of that, particularly natural, organic, the pricing was just out of reach for many consumers. And that's just accentuated in this age where affordability is top of mind.

SPEAKER_01 21:23

Yeah. That links it perfectly to the to the better for you. That was a good job. Good segue.

PVSB 21:28

Boom.

SPEAKER_01 21:29

But that better for you segment is growing, it's outpacing total food and beverage. So it's interesting because you know, despite inflationary pressures, it's continued to kind of differentiate itself from total food and beverage sales. The one I think call to action slash watch out for retailers in that space is you have to make sure that better for you is clearly defined and that that better for is easy for consumers to digest. So better for whom, in what way? Why does it add value into my home, into my lifestyle?

PVSB 22:01

Nicole, online, consumers are clearly paying a premium for convenience and speed. In-store promotions seem to be working a lot less, even though manufacturers are investing heavily on trying to drive those promotions to move volume because they're all facing these volume pinches. What's the disconnect here and which basket metric do you think brands should be watching more closely, right?

SPEAKER_01 22:27

No. Between online volume and promoted volume. Look, if you're not online, you have to be online. There has to be some strategy, right?

SPEAKER_03 22:36

Because if you can't MySpace, that grocery you pick up via MySpace, yes.

SPEAKER_01 22:41

But if you're not there, go back to the idea of losing the mission. Yeah. You're you're losing the basket. If you it and once that basket is lost, it's very, very hard to earn back. So I think it's it's not either or. I hate to say that. Peter, but it's both. Promotion is one of the things I'm I'm like very oddly passionate about this idea of promotion.

SPEAKER_03 23:04

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 23:04

But think about these numbers. Over the past five years, investment in promotion, like promotional volume, volume sold on promotion, has increased 30%. Incrementality from promotion has decreased 18%. So it's a complete inverse equation. And brands are continuing to invest in promotion, retailers are continuing to demand it. It's not working for either one to really drive incrementality. So that's to me, if you think about a trend or a fad, right? That's a fad that we have to buck as an industry. We have to think about joint value creation, not promoted expense.

Sri 23:41

We're also training the consumer that cheap is the only way, right? So that's the problem as well. Yeah. You are walking encyclopedia of numbers today. When it comes to knowledge, Nicole is full of it. Oh. I mean that. Straight of the main stage. Of everything we've covered today, what do you see as a fad? What's a real trend? What's an enduring shift? And as you look ahead, what are the forces you think will define the next chapter of how people shop?

SPEAKER_01 24:08

Yeah. I think I talked about a couple of them on stage. I I think, you know, we talked about club. I I think that's an enduring shift. I I spoil our alert, I think all of these things are actually enduring shifts. I think we've got to be better as an industry about managing fads and getting behind some of the big things that are happening on socials and in other places to capture the basket. But I think club value channel growth is an enduring trend. We'd better prepare to really meet consumers there because I think that's going to continue. Same for private label, private brands. I would encourage everybody to continue investing in the right thing that makes sense for your consumer because it's a hopefully a strong margin play, but also a basket builder. And then better for you, it's here. It's not going anywhere. Promotion is the one we just talked about where I really feel like we've just got to do something different as an industry.

PVSB 25:01

Nicole, I get the opportunity to ask you the last question. I will reference to our audience. If what you heard today from Nicole is intriguing, it certainly is to me. Just toggle over to the show's digital liner notes. You will find a link where you can learn how to get your uh sweaty little hands on this highly valuable document. So my last question will be to you is as brands and retailers start digesting everything that you've poured into this thoughtful research, what's the one action you tell them right now and do it pretty quickly?

SPEAKER_01 25:38

Yeah, I think now and even into the future, retailers and brands both have to make their value legible. I love that intentional use of the word legible because today, for the most part, it's consumers making decisions about how the basket's gonna be built. But we all know in the future it's going to be agents making those decisions. So a consumer or an agent has to be able to see the price, identify the value, easily look for trade-offs, kind of comprehend that to make a decision quickly. So make value legible for your consumer. And I'll just add on one quick thing, which is spend the time recognizing what value means to your consumer on that mission because value is just it's no longer one-dimensional. It's very multi-dimensional for every household. Some are willing to stock up, some are willing to pay more for value, some are watching every penny that goes in the basket. And they're all likely shopping in your stores if you're a retailer. So make sure that that value is clear and ties back to the customer.

Sri 26:39

So, Peter, in an episode full of stats, insights, data, I want to hear your big takeaway.

PVSB 26:45

Well, it was about the looks like an enduring shift in focus to the club channel. They have really benefited from this economic downturn. People see the value from a volume basis that club offers them. I would also argue, well, this wasn't part of the research, just the discovery value of going to a club store is the, you know, the the entertainment aspect.

Sri 27:08

The free examples.

PVSB 27:09

It's great, it's phenomenal. You it's all about discovery. They they've done a phenomenal job. You know that I love things like scan and go. I they first introduced it at Sam's Club, rolled into Walmart. I'm a regular shopper at BJ's wholesale club. They have a scan and go opportunity. I hate those long lines at the club store. If I can scan my items, walk out, show the barcode to the person at the exit, and they scan it, boom, I'm at the door. So club stores to me are huge beneficiaries of the economic challenges. And I'm really intrigued to see how grocery can respond. That's the big takeaway for me.

Sri 27:46

Mine, Peter, is the closing that Nicole gave on the definition of value. It's going to be much more personalized than I think we conceived because traditionally we think of value is just a price and a number. But even that's going to differ by the household. It's not going to be this uniform flow that we're used to in this industry. That, Nicole, listening to you speak, my big takeaway is the industry has some major adjustments to make overall from an infrastructure perspective and delivery for the consumer. So thank you in a busy Groceryshop for joining us on the CPG guys.

SPEAKER_01 28:16

Thanks for having me. This was wonderful, as always.

Sri 28:19

To our audience, if today's conversation sparked something for you, new idea, fresh perspective, just a reminder why this industry is worth showing up for every single day. Share it, tag us, tell a colleague. The more voices we bring in this community, the sharper all of us can. To the LinkedIn followers that trust us to inform, educate, and entertain you about our industry. Thank you for your trust and thank you for your encouragement. Until next time, keep pushing the conversation forward. I'm Sri, and on behalf of my co-host PVSP, this has been the CPG Guys Podcast. See you soon.